And what types of chemicals can bias self-duplication in ways that are adequate for this ratchet?

Well...we...don't know. We do know we have a vast amount of time and space and molecules, and an extremely potent optimizing mechanism that requires fairly specific conditions to take hold. We can't rule it in or out at this point on the basis of evidence.

I mean, I can calculate a 10^-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 probability or whatever that Jesus spontaneously became alive again, but it's completely irrelevant to Christianity because the model isn't "random molecular action resurrected Christ".

Calculating the probability of random assembly of evolved systems is equally misleading.

I'm not in the least opposed to the possibility of a creator. What is, is; all we can do is find it. It's just that the evidence for a creator is extremely scant when it comes to things like life. Abiogenesis is a bunch of question marks. It doesn't argue against a creator, but it also doesn't particularly argue for one.