Rex Kerr
Jul 29, 2022

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Aside: this isn't correct reasoning.

Danger is a rate. If you are a police officer, what is your chance of dying? If you are a child, what is your chance of dying? You can't just compare the number of children shot dead to the number of police shot dead--you have to compare (children shot dead)/(number of children) to (police shot dead)/(number of police). That tells you the rate.

After all, you don't say that it's more dangerous to fly on an airplane than it is to climb K2, even though more people have died in plane crashes than have died trying to climb K2. About a quarter of people who have tried to climb K2 have died. A quarter of people who try to fly on a plane do not die. Thank goodness.

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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