Rex Kerr
1 min readMar 30, 2023

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Hey, uh, that's not what this means. This means it rests with Americans. If some group commits a crime roughly in proportion to their prevalence in the population, it means that group identity is irrelevant.

Gender identity: man vs woman is very very important. Men ~50x more dangerous. Yes, fifty times. (95% confidence interval: 20x to 100x.)

Trans identity: dunno. Sample size too small. With this one event, 95% confidence interval ranges from "trans men are as dangerous as cis women" through to "trans men are three times as dangerous as cis men". That is: trans men are human. Okay then!

Racial identity (presumably race-associated culture in actuality): not very important (in comparison).

Cultural context: very very important. Fifty times more likely to be a mass shooter if you live in the U.S. than if you live in Japan. (Mass murder with other weapons has a smaller disparity, but it's still over 10x worse in the U.S..)

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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