Rex Kerr
May 4, 2024

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How many hours have you spent around bears? How many around men?

How many times have you randomly encountered bears in the wilderness? How many times have you randomly encountered men in the wilderness?

I get that men are dangerous. No denying that. It's perfectly reasonable to be nervous around strange men in the wilderness and to be nervous around strange bears in the wilderness.

But if you're trying to do an honest head-to-head comparison, you haven't. Neither did the original poster.

"Humans are bad at statistical reasoning" is a good way to explain why people are afraid of flying but not driving. But it's not a good way to explain why someone should be afraid of flying instead of driving. For that, you need to actually make a fair comparison. (E.g. deaths-per-mile.)

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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