I think you're missing the part where the most effective argument for trans rights is the existence of gender dysphoria. Practically any time anyone starts saying anything transphobic or even trans-questioning, out comes gender dysphoria.

This is entirely appropriate, when talking about people who experience gender dysphoria.

But what about people who don't experience gender dysphoria?

Consider disabled parking spaces--people with severely limited mobility have a very good argument that they need especially convenient access to buildings. Makes sense, right?

Now suppose people tell us that they are "socially disabled". They can physically move fine, but they identify as not wanting to move very far. Okay, okay, maybe their ankle hurts a little, sometimes. So they too should get access to disabled parking spaces.

We might very well go---haaaang on there. We're willing to give special access for a very good reason, but only for that very good reason. And this "social disability" sounds pretty fishy.

Now imagine you're trying to campaign for the rights of disabled people, and you have a bunch of "socially-disabled" people as part of your advocacy group. Is this going to help or hurt?

This is what transmed vs. not can look like from outside the LGBTQ+ community.

So I'm not sure your story here has really captured enough insight about the issue. Yes, of course, it is true that anti-trans people will ban any and all everything given half a chance. But it does not follow that there aren't a lot of people who need a lot more convincing for every flavor of non-binary than they do for severe gender dysphoria with gender-affirming care that includes top and bottom surgery. Indeed, pretty much every poll I've seen that covers this issue shows a pretty sizable disparity between people's views on these two things.

At some point, people start to wonder whether there is really any difference between a gender-nonconforming homosexual non-transitioned trans woman and a cis man.

The advantage of a big tent is that you have more support. The disadvantage, when you're asking to let everyone in the tent in, is that it's a bigger ask. And that's something that it doesn't seem that the community has quite been ready to face up to yet, and I don't think this has been a good thing for trans rights in a lot of places. It works fine in highly progressive areas, but elsewhere not so much, it seems.