Rex Kerr
Jun 11, 2024

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It is highly likely that they're not reporting data that they know with the male/female numbers because the variance of the total is lower than the variance of the male and female components. (This is an easy way to eyeball that they must be anticorrelated, which you show.)

The variance also is informative about the number of independent events (lots, or the variance would be larger), which makes it implausible that the explanation is that sometimes the targets have more women and sometimes more men--unless Israel is going, "Okay, now, today we're going to launch a hundred woman-targeting strikes; tomorrow we'll do 85 that kill predominently men", etc..

So the victim sex is almost surely fabricated or "estimated" if you want to be charitable. Whether deaths themselves are cannot be determined.

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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