That TikTok dad math is also wrong because it assumes that bears will keep hanging out where bears hang out now.

But the premise of the question is not that there are some bears in the woods and you hang out where you always do.

The concerns you raise are important and deserve attention. Yes, there are too many men around who are dangerous, too many who will force themselves on women, too many with obnoxious personalities (sometimes directing the obnoxiousness specifically at women, sometimes not--all a problem), and so on.

But "just believe women" about matters of statistics which can't be done intuitively in one's head is a silly thing to say. If you care about the issues you talked about, just ignore the statistics of comparison with bears. Alternatively, get them at least vaguely right. Don't botch them and say, "See! It really is bad!" That just undermines your credibility.