This is a really important point. Even if it's not the genocide train (or is technically a "genocide train" but doesn't go all the way to where people normally think genocide trains go), being run over by a train is terrible, and the train is visible. If people don't think it's the A line to Rockaway Park Beach it hardly matters whether they're right that it goes somewhere else or you're right if you're being run over right now.

You place the blame on anti-trans forces for minimizing harm, but if you look around there has been a lot of exaggeration of harm, consistent with the far left's propensity to recontextualize every manner of disapproval and negativity as "violence" (unless it's directed against their opponents). The anti-trans side doesn't need to struggle to find "gotcha" examples. The linguistic swords and spears you need to help defend against truly dire threats, like children being stolen from their parents because their parents lovingly try to support them, are dull and rusty from having been used for pronoun-gardening.

I hope for the sake of trans people in trans-unfriendly jurisdictions, this can be rapidly and resoundingly changed. Abject cruelty can move almost anyone, if the focus is there. People can be callous, indifferent, and judgmental, but it's largely contextual. The same people can be compassionate and horrified by harm, if they are confronted by it.