Um, what?

The zoonotic hypothesis is still looking rather better than the lab leak hypothesis. On Medium, The Gift of Fire has written some informative articles on this. The experts said naive things, true (as did the conspiracy theorists). But it looks like they probably lucked out this time and it wasn't a lab leak.

The vaccine did originally stop transmission to a decent extent. But the virus mutated, and people's antibody levels also dropped pretty quickly after the vaccine. However, our policies did not change. The problem wasn't primarily the wrong assumption (though the unmeasured effect was assumed better than it actually was); the problem was that the answer was a moving target.

You make a lot of great points, but you don't seem to have applied them very thoroughly to these examples. If you want a botched Covid policy example, masks are far better: initially they weren't helpful (wrong), then they were essential but that you were masked not what type of mask you had was what was important (also wrong).