Rex Kerr
2 min readFeb 28, 2023

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You do realize that I was talking about exactly this paper, among others, in my answer, don't you? And pointing out the methodological flaws that make it very useful to answer some questions, but not these questions? If you want to understand detransition, you have to study either all people who transitioned, regardless of how they identify now, or all people who detransitioned, regardless of how they identify now. Selection effects can radically skew the results.

I have read a good bit of the literature (though not comprehensively; I don't have that much time)--that is why I was asking for which paper(s), because an overall characterization of "Research paper after research paper has concluded that 97% of the people who transition never have any regrets." makes it seem like the rates are pretty well known and fairly consistent. Wiepjes et al. 2018 report under 1% post-surgery, by their definition, with a sample size large enough so they ought to be able to tell. There's a meta-analysis in Bustos et al. 2021 which comes up with about 1% overall, but it's worth noting that the papers that comprise the meta-analysis don't agree with each other particularly closely, which also suggests that differences in care and/or selection for the procedure are important. Your characterization of the Wiepjes, which I linked, seems like you thought I meant Bustos (or maybe something else?). Anyway, my point is that the "97%" number gives the wrong impression about the prevalence and about the accuracy with which the number is known (and how well we know what it depends on).

You do seem to know the literature decently well yourself, but I'm perplexed why you think I "did a quick Google search". (I'm also perplexed why you think the "best study to consider" is one whose result you then characterize as "This is a bit misleading". Why not stick with the Dutch study you mentioned?)

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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