Rex Kerr
2 min readSep 9, 2023

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You're still dodging!

You keep saying you're not. I, too, can say words!

But I want an actual test and you come up with nonsensical fluff like "did even one person predict a pandemic". Of course people predict disasters all the time. Sometimes pandemics. Usually not.

Give me evidence that the dominant prediction for 2020 was pandemic and it's worth looking further (e.g. using the text-predictions-before-2019-09 like I said before, or the much more laborious pile of YouTube links method).

Or give me a rate of prediction of pandemics for a decent stretch of time (let's say 2000-2020), normalize by the number of predictions of something bad happening per year, and then show that 2020 has an anomalously large number of pandemic predictions--then we're getting far enough to start investigating.

That you even think that "did anyone ever" indicates anything important is a resounding condemnation of your ability to formulate any sort of serious test whatsoever.

Each time I try to set up conditions that could somewhat falsify your hypothesis, you shift the goalposts, say I know I'm going to lose, and berate me for closed-mindedness.

And this is after my show of good faith with you stonewalling on what I should look at, leaving me to take a principled approach that would nail it with any serious scientific subject, and wasting an hour and change on people talking about what seem like pretty ordinary speculations about the social and political scene in 2020.

This is ridiculous. Of course nobody who cares about accumulating reliable knowledge will take you seriously if you fail to give them any information, criticize them when they follow up on your vague hints, and not nail anything down.

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Rex Kerr
Rex Kerr

Written by Rex Kerr

One who rejoices when everything is made as simple as possible, but no simpler. Sayer of things that may be wrong, but not so bad that they're not even wrong.

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